Importance of Iranian oil for India

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Warning of $80 oil price as sanctions on Iran bite

Oil prices rose on Tuesday amid looming USA sanctions against Iran's petroleum industry, despite efforts by Washington to get other major suppliers to make up for the expected disruption.

"There remains a lot of noise in this week's markets, but the confluence of bullish near-term signals, such as Iran sanctions, sinking United States crude inventories and Mideast tensions should keep oil prices supported for the remainder of the week", according to Stephen Innes, head of trading for Asia Pacific at Oanda Corp.

"According to Bloomberg, in case the Iran sanctions come into place, oil price could go up to $150 a barrel", reported ET. Brent, the global benchmark, rose $1.67 a barrel to trade above $79.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for October delivery traded at $69.12 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down $1.25, at 9:52 a.m.in London.

USA crude stocks fell by 8.6 million barrels in the week to September 7 to 395.9 million barrels, the American Petroleum Institute (API), a private industry group, said on Tuesday.

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USA nationwide crude inventories may have fallen 2.25 MMbbl last week, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts ahead of government data due to be released on Wednesday.

India, typically the second-biggest buyer of Iranian oil after China, has also dialed back Iranian orders while importing more from the United States, the data showed.

But the US government does not want to push up oil prices, which could depress economic activity or even trigger a slowdown in global growth.

US Energy Secretary Rick Perry met Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih on Monday in Washington, as the Trump administration encourages big oil-producing countries to keep output high. Accendo Markets analyst Artjom Hatsaturjants said Hurricane Florence is not expected to disrupt oil-drilling infrastructure, but could impact energy demand.

USA crude rose $1.65 a barrel to $70.90 after the report was issued. "I'd say several vessels a month", he told agencies. Novak did not provide details.

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A group of producers around OPEC and Russian Federation have been voluntarily withholding supplies since January 2017 to tighten markets, but with crude prices up by more than 40 percent since then and markets significantly tighter, there has been pressure on Russian Federation and OPEC to raise output.

Regarding crude oil production, the EIA said on Tuesday it expected USA output to rise by 840,000 barrels per day (bpd) between 2018 and 2019 to 11.5 million bpd, lower than a rise of 1.02 million bpd to 11.7 million that was previously forecast.

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It expects demand growth of 1.41 million barrels a day in 2019, revising downwards previous projections by 20,000 bpd.

The softness in recent days has taken the wind out of the sails of crude oil, but it does not mean we are on the verge of another downturn.

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The cartel revised world oil demand growth in 2019 slightly lower by 20,000 from the previous month's report, again due to economic revisions to Latin America and the Middle East: "World oil demand growth is now anticipated at 1.41 million bpd and total global consumption at around 100.23 million bpd", it stated, adding that the trade war between the US and China is also cause for ongoing concern.

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