IMF Spots Trouble for Global Economy After 2020

The International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday that rising U.S.

The lender said South Africa's economic growth would average 1.8% between 2020 and 2023, well below the country's target of 5% annual expansion needed to dent soaring levels of poverty and unemployment. The United States has threatened to slap tariffs on as much as $150 billion in Chinese goods, while Beijing has vowed to retaliate in kind.

In a sign of its growing concern that protectionism is being stimulated by voter scepticism, the International Monetary Fund used its half-yearly health check for the world economy to tell policymakers they needed to address the public's concerns before a better-than-expected period of growth came to an end. Financial markets have been choppy this year, with USA stocks down slightly after a strong performance in 2017.

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Despite the recent global economic upswing, public optimism about trade had been "eroded" by "long-standing trends of job and wage polarization, coupled with persistent sub-par growth in median wages", Mr Obstfeld said. -China trade restrictions threaten to damage a steady global growth picture, but there was still time for the world's two largest economies to step back from the brink.

But there are signs the synchronized recovery may be becoming a little more uneven, at least in the short term, with the United States charging ahead, fueled by tax cuts and government spending.

In general, economy of the CIS member countries will grow 2.2 percent in 2018 and 2.1 percent in 2019, according to analysts of the fund.

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He attributes the rosier USA outlook to federal tax cuts, a massive US$300 billion spending package, and the possibility of an additional spending or infrastructure bill. However, the fund said growth will be lower than expected after 2022, due to the higher budget deficit and the expiry of fiscal stimulus.

Southeast Asia's booming economies of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam will collectively maintain growth above five percent this year and next, the fund said.

The WEO upgraded the U.S., which is expected to expand by 2.9% in 2018 and 2.7% in 2019 - up from the 2.7% and 2.5% predicted in January. Both forecasts were unchanged from three months ago.

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"Over the medium term, growth is expected to gradually rise with continued implementation of structural reforms that raise productivity and incentivise private investment", the report read.

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