The all India weather inference, issued by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), stated that a cyclonic circulation at 1.5 kilometres above sea level is present over central parts of south Madhya Pradesh and neighbouring areas.
This forecast comes with a model error of plus or minus 5%.
Earlier this month, private weather forecasting agency Skymet had also predicted normal Monsoon this year. "The forecast suggests that the monsoon rainfall during the 2018 season averaged over the country as a whole is likely to be 97 per cent", IMD Director General K.J. Ramesh said at press conference here.
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The monsoon is considered normal if the average rainfall is between 96 to 104 per cent of LPA.
Normal rains in last two years helped a rebound in farm growth rate to 6.8% in 2016-17 and an estimated 3% in 2017-18.
A good monsoon is good news for the Indian economy.
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The latest forecasts from the MMCFS and global models indicate weak negative IOD conditions may develop during the middle of the monsoon season.
Anything less than 90 per cent of LPA is termed a "deficient" monsoon, and 90-96 per cent of the same is considered "below normal". The country receives some 70 per cent of its annual rainfall during the four-month Monsoon season.
Successive years of drought in 2014 and 2015 led to a fall in crop production and poor agriculture sector growth rate which fell to a low of -0.8% in 2014-15 and -0.1% in 2015-16.
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